Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only. Do not attempt to diagnose or treat yourself or others based on the content. This post does not condemn or endorse any medical treatments. If you have any questions regarding your medical status, seek a licensed professional for advice and counseling. Whether to receive medical treatment such as vaccination is a personal choice, and I respect your decision either way.

A Marketer’s Best Friend

Relative Risk

The makers of the Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccination claim that it is 95% effective in preventing Covid-19. 1 The information was published on December 10, 2020, in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine. On December 30, 2020, the same journal published data for the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine. It claimed it has a 94.1% efficacy at preventing Covid-19 illness, including severe disease. 2 Finally, four months later, on April 21, 2021, the journal published a paper stating that the Johnson and Johnson Covid-19 vaccine has 85% efficacy against severe–critical Covid-19. 3 The numbers are compelling. The problem is, the authors are using "relative risk," not actual risk. I have written about this statistical sleight of hand before. Read my take on this dubious practice here. You will see in a moment what the studies actually show in real-world terms.

Actual Risk

Pfizer Claim: 95%, Reality: .736% Symptom Reduction

The data on the Pfizer vaccine has the placebo group getting symptoms at only .74%. Pfizer only had healthy people with no underlying illnesses in their study. The fact that less than 1% of them got covid even without the vaccine is very significant. It shows that healthy people are at little risk of developing symptoms and even less of dying. Infectious disease expert John P. Loannidis estimates the overall risk of death at .05%. 4 The risk is much lower for young and healthy patients. The researchers did not track infections, hospitalizations, or death in the Pfizer study, so no claims are made in the Pfizer paper in preventing or spreading the virus to others. Only .036% of their vaccine group ended up with Covid-19 symptoms, which sounds impressive. But here's the reality: lowering a .74% incidence of symptoms to .036% is a mere .736% reduction in actual risk. Taking an unapproved vaccine to reduce your risk of Covid symptoms, not a SARS Cov2 infection, by less than 1% does not seem as enticing as 95%. Because of the relative risk trickery, Pfizer can claim it is 95% effective because reducing .74% down to .036% is a 95% reduction. Relative risk is a sales tactic at best and deception at worst.

Moderna Claim: 94.4%, Reality: 1.128% Symptom Reduction

Moderna used people with underlying illnesses, so their placebo group got symptoms at a 1.2% rate. But, again, they did not test their subjects for the infection; they only tracked symptoms. Their vaccine group got symptoms at .072%, so the vaccine lowered the risk of symptoms by 1.128%. The study claims 94.4% because .072% is 94.4% better than 1.128%. But they once again use relative risk to mislead the public into believing it is highly effective instead of barely better than reducing symptoms at 1%. 

J&J Claim: 90%, Reality: 1.177% Symptom Reduction 

 Finally, the Johnson and Johnson study showed that the unvaccinated symptom rate decreased by 1.177% to .59%. Again, the paper says the vaccine is 90% effective due to its use of relative risk. Because they use 90% as their claim, the public thinks it does not work as well as the others. Strangely, it is the better of the three at 1.177% symptom reduction, and you also only need one injection. They, too, did not study the infection and transmissibility of the coronavirus. 

Bottom Line

 The average for all three vaccinations is a 1% reduction in Covid-19 symptoms. They make no claims about their ability to prevent infection or spread the virus.

There are also risks to the vaccine as well that perhaps I will cover in a later post. I am aware that the severity of the infections may be less with the vaccinations; however, none of the studies tracked hospitalizations or death. This post will not address the issue as data is still forthcoming. Later in this post, I will cover vulnerability to severe outcomes and discuss one huge risk-free factor other than a vaccine that can decrease death and severe infections by over 90%.

 Variants Are Normal

Most of the new Covid-19 cases are attributed to the Delta variant. Viruses, especially RNA viruses like the coronavirus, mutate quickly to evade the host's immune system. 5 According to Nature Microbiology, "mutation is a humdrum aspect of life for an RNA virus...these cycles can occur on the order of hours, ensuring that a diverse virus population will be generated within a single infected host." 6 

Geert Vanden Bossche's Prediction

Typically, when we catch a virus, we make numerous different types of antibodies to different virus components so that when one mutation happens, we still have protection. Geert Vanden Bossche predicted that mass vaccinations would cause unnaturally fast mutations and render the vaccinations irrelevant. He has a distinguished resume, including working for Bill and Melinda Gates at GAVI. He claimed that since the vaccines help us to produce only one specific antibody to the spike protein, it would force a mutation rendering the vaccine ineffective. His advice was to wait until fewer people had the virus to give the vaccinations. 6 He was universally criticized for his stance.

The fact-check article is amusing now that he has been proven correct, as we will see with the Israeli data. They actually charge him for using "basic science" as if simple arguments are invalid. I also love the quotation marks on the word expert in the subtitle which is supposed to lead us into thinking he is not one. By the way, they prove nothing in their article other than than they like to employ obfuscation and yellow journalism.

 Covid-19 Rates Among the Vaccinated

If the vaccines were 90 to 95% effective at preventing infection and spreading disease, you would expect unvaccinated individuals to make up 90 to 95% of the new cases. Israel has the best vaccine coverage in the world. 88% of the population is now vaccinated. As you can see from the data table above, around 85% of the new cases are in vaccinated patients. The figures should not be surprising, as none of the vaccine trials studied infection and transmission. Since 88% of the population are vaccinated, but only 85% of the new cases are in vaccinated individuals, there may be a 3% decreased risk of infection, but it is more likely that there is a 3% drop in symptoms only. We may never know because asymptomatic carrier status will not prompt a PCR test since there are no symptoms. 3% is good news for the vaccine manufacturers, as only around a 1% decrease in symptoms was expected. 

 Misleading Statements From Politicians, the Media, and Scientists

The mainstream media, politicians, and even scientists have been using fear to control their narrative. Some of them have been honest enough to admit it, as the headline above shows. President Biden blamed Facebook for "killing people" with vaccine misinformation and claimed the "only pandemic is among the unvaccinated." Later on, the White House claimed only 12 people on Facebook were to blame for 65% of the misinformation. 7  How is it that the massive effort by the government and media to have us all vaccinated ASAP has resulted in a 50% vaccination rate, but 12 people on Facebook have convinced the unvaccinated to remain so? Maybe the government should hire them as strategists.

Real News and Ignored Data By the CDC

Many vaccinated people are catching Covid-19. You may have heard about the New York Yankees team breakout. On July 20, a sixth vaccinated person on a trip, including Texas Democrats, tested positive for Covid-19. 8 As I have stated, only about half of Americans have chosen to receive vaccinations. This is not surprising as one poll notes that over 74% of us believe it is a personal choice. 9 

 The CDC Does Not Care to Track Cases of Vaccine Failure

The CDC has ceased tracking vaccine failures as of May 1, 2021. They state, "As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance." 10 The CDC uses breakthrough instead of failure because it sounds better. This is nonsense. Determining whether the vaccines prevent covid infections and spread is hugely significant. 

 More Effective Measures To Survive The Pandemic Exist

9 out of 10 Covid-19 deaths may be due to vitamin D deficiency. 11 This study showed vitamin D can stop 93% of ICU cases of Covid. In other words, it will stop covid from progressing to a severe form in most instances. If simple vitamin D supplements that are known to be safe can prevent 90% of Covid deaths, why not promote them? I think the answer is that no single company makes huge profits in such a scheme. The good news is we are all free to raise our vitamin D levels on our own. Please read my post on it here. You don't need supplements in many instances. Sun exposure is usually good enough to raise levels. Foods like liver, egg yolks, and salmon contain plenty of vitamin D. Read more about vitamin D in my other posts here, here, here, and here.

 Conclusion

The virus spread even though we wore masks, locked ourselves away, lost jobs, hit a recession, and got vaccinated. Israel has vaccine passports, even though the majority of the infected are vaccinated. If vaccinated and unvaccinated people are spreading Covid-19 at similar rates (see the Israeli Data above), why restrict the unvaccinated only? I see no common sense in this. Are we going to limit unvaccinated individuals' freedoms when the vaccine companies themselves don't claim the vaccines prevent infection and spread? Why don't we try living more healthy lifestyles and making better food choices? Why doesn't the government spend billions on educating us, as they did with the vaccines, to be healthier? I think the bribes of free weed, ice cream, and donuts in exchange for proof of vaccination say it all. We have far too many people in the country focused on unhealthy eating and lifestyles and quick miracles like pills and vaccines. But raising vitamin D is not a huge undertaking and can make as much, if not more of a difference, than the vaccines and pose little risk. I highly recommend it.